Working Papers

Sectoral Balances of the Local Foreign Exchange Market

Fiscal Reporting under Fiscal Dominance: A Decomposition of Net Domestic Financing

This article examines a fiscal-reporting problem that arises under fiscal dominance: net domestic financing may be recorded as domestic borrowing even when its economic substance reflects central-bank financing of the fiscal deficit.
Latest draft: June 2026
Sectoral Balances of the Local Foreign Exchange Market

Dutch Disease as a Money Shock: The Missing-Imports Problem

This paper develops a model in which the composition of fiscal financing determines whether resource booms generate Dutch disease effects. Resource-financed spending can be absorbed through imports, while money-financed spending raises domestic demand without expanding import capacity. The result is real exchange-rate pressure and contraction in the tradable sector. The paper shows that identifying Dutch disease empirically requires attention to monetary diagnostics.
Latest draft: May 2026
Sectoral Balances of the Local Foreign Exchange Market

The Open-Economy Golden Rule of Public Finance

This article derives the open-economy Golden Rule of public finance. While the conventional condition MPK = r* ignores the foreign exchange (FX) footprint of public investment , the correct open-economy Golden Rule requires borrowing until the FX-adjusted MPK = r*.
Latest draft: December 2025
Sectoral Balances of the Local Foreign Exchange Market

Accounting for the Paradox of Plenty: Foreign Exchange Shortages amid BoP Surpluses

Examines how foreign exchange shortages can persist even in the presence of balance-of-payments surpluses, and explores the macroeconomic mechanisms that disconnect external accounting outcomes from actual foreign exchange availability.
Latest draft: October 2025
Cost-based vs. CPI-based Inflation

Overheating on Ice: Mis-measuring Inflation and Output Gaps in SOEs

Develops a framework for understanding how overheating can be mis-measured in small open developing economies when CPI inflation is a lagging indicator and foreign exchange market pressure is omitted from standard output-gap analysis.
Latest draft: August 2025
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Tariffs, Fiscal Policy, and the U.S. Trade Deficit: A Macro-Finance Perspective

Reconsiders the relationship between tariffs, fiscal policy, and the U.S. trade deficit through a macro-finance lens, with particular attention to balance-sheet adjustment and external financing conditions.
Latest draft: June 2025
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Political Pressure and Central Bank Monetization: Dutch Disease and Monetary Developments in Ghana and Guyana

Investigates how political pressure influences central bank monetisation of government outlay and shapes Dutch disease dynamics in Ghana and Guyana.
with Tarron Khemraj | Latest draft: June 2025
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Throwing Darts and Missing the Bullseye: Fiscal and Debt Sustainability in Open Economies

Reassesses fiscal and debt sustainability in open economies and develops an alternative framework that challenges conventional debt rules by incorporating external balance-sheet constraints and macro-financial interactions.
Latest draft: October 2025
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The Political Economy of Ethnic Income Inequality: Lessons from Guyana

Examines the political economy of ethnic income inequality in Guyana and explores how distributional divisions interact with institutions, political conflict, and long-run development outcomes.
Latest draft: April 2022